Saturday, August 13, 2005

President Bush Calls Out Iran on Nukes

Iran continues to push the envelop. BBC NEWS | Middle East has the story here. The President has said that all options "are on the table." Iran, meanwhile, has all but dared the West to try and stop them:
The former Iranian President, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has expressed surprise at Thursday's call by the UN nuclear agency, the IAEA, for Iran to suspend its nuclear activities.

The IAEA asked its chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, to report on Iran's compliance by 3 September.

Speaking at Friday prayers in Tehran, Mr Rafsanjani said western opposition to Iran's decision to resume its nuclear programme would, as he put it, cost them dearly.

"Our people are not going to allow their nuclear rights to be seized," Mr Rafsanjani said. He said he was astonished that no country opposed the European Union-sponsored resolution, adopted by the IAEA, that urged Iran to stop any work on processing uranium for enrichment.
AP has a detailed look at how Iran's nuclear program could generate weapons-grade uranium or plutonium:
Nuclear weapons can be produced using either plutonium or highly enriched uranium as the explosive core. Either substance can be produced in the process of running a reactor.

Uranium is enriched by turning the raw ore into gas, which is then spun in centrifuges. If it is enriched to a low level, it can be used as fuel for a reactor; at a high level, it can be used for a bomb.

Iran's enrichment program is at an advanced stage, with thousands of centrifuges ready to start working. While Iran is continuing its suspension of enrichment, it ended its freeze this week on the first step in the process - turning raw uranium into gas - bringing a sharp rebuke from Europe.

Reactors fueled by enriched uranium use regular - or "light" - water as a "moderator" in the chain reaction that produces energy. The Khandub reactor, however, uses "heavy water," which contains a heavier hydrogen particle. That allows the reactor to run on natural uranium mined by Iran, forgoing the expensive process of enrichment.

The spent fuel from a heavy-water reactor can be reprocessed to extract plutonium for use in a bomb.
Iran seems convinced that simple defiance of the US and Europe will lead to their capitulation to Iran's demand for nuclear autonomy. Considering the previous conflict between the US and the France/Germany/Russia axis of weasels over Iraq, I'm not surprised that Iran thinks they can exploit these Nation-states again. The differences between the situations, however, could not be more clear. Iran has been an active sponsor of International terrorism for many years. They have the world's second largest supply of Natural gas, more than adequite for any electricity production that they need. The US and Europe will look at Iran's nuclear program as a threat to their mutual security. There's no ambiguity regarding Iran's nuclear capacity, and International institutions already warn Iran to stop. The Mullahs won't find a wedge issue. They may find themselves looking down the barrel of US and British guns operating under a UN mandate. Not to mention the other UN members that will likely participate, should force be necessary and authorized.

I hope things don't come to that. Unfortunately, Iran doesn't seem to share that hope.