Great Britain points a finger at Iran

Terrorists among the Shia kill five British soldiers. British sources connect them to Hezbollah in Lebanon, long supplied and influenced by Iran. With Iran stonewalling Europe and the world over their nuclear program, Dowing Street decides to pump up the volume.

BBC NEWS has the story here.

Britain has accused Iran of responsibility for explosions which have caused the deaths of all eight UK soldiers killed in Iraq this year.

A senior British official, briefing correspondents in London, blamed Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

He said they provided the technology to a Shia group in southern Iraq. The Iranians had denied this, he added.

While UK officials have hinted at an Iranian link before, this is the first specific allegation to be made.

They may feel there is little to lose right now by making such accusations, given that diplomatic relations are already low following the breakdown of talks over Iran's nuclear programme, says the BBC website's world affairs correspondent, Paul Reynolds.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the technology had come from Hezbollah in Lebanon via Iran and produced an "explosively shaped projectile".

He said that dissidents from the Mehdi army, a militia controlled by the radical Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, were suspected of carrying out the attacks.

One of their leaders, Ahmed al-Fartusi, was arrested by British forces recently and was "currently enjoying British hospitality", as the official put it.

It was that arrest which sparked off an anti-British protest in Basra recently.

Iran continues to rattle its sabre. They'll only succeed in galvenizing the UK's support for any sanctions the UN Security Council considers for Iran's defiance. The Mullah's play a dangerous game and still believe that terrorists will drive Great Britain from the field in Iraq. With the referendum on the constitution coming soon, and Sunnis withdrawing their threat to boycott it, the Mullah's are running out of time. But they can still count on intransigence from the Security Council.

Russia and China will not move against Iran. Both countries have done business with the Islamic Republic before. Both may benefit from Iran's entry to nuclear power status. If Iran can provide for it's power needs through nuclear energy, they'll have even more natural gas to sell, and both Russia and China will happily buy that excess off their hands. If Iran becomes a nuclear power, China and Russia may see the IR as a possible check on US influence in the Middle East. They would both love to see that considering neither supported the US invasion of Iraq and subsequent establishment of a Democracy there. No, they would love to off-set the US military and diplomatic influence in the region, in order to buy time until their economic influence becomes another check on US power.

The Mullahs, however, don't have that kind of time. With Afghanistan stablizing on one border and Iraq emerging on the other, they may soon find themselves geographically and politically isolated from the Gulf States and the Muslim world. Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza allows them to commit more resources to the north, boxing Hezbollah in--assuming Lebanon's nascent independence remains, and the Lebonese government ends their unfettered access. Iran desperately needs some method of deterring what they anticipate is another conquest by the US. They also need an Iraq that's in shambles. In the south, Great Britains stands in the way. Thus, they need GB out of there.

Unfortunately for them, the Mullah's strategy will backfire on them. If Great Britain and the US put pressure on Russia and China, they'll both abstain from any Security Council Resolution that punishes Iran. France may go along if GB horse-trades on EU agricultural policies. Iran thus faces a UN Security Council that could impose sanctions--and a Iraqi republic with strong US ties and military support that might just object to Iran's interference in their internal affairs.

Iran should stop rolling the dice and start playing heads-up diplomacy. If they want power, let them work out a deal to secure power that involves unannounced inspections of nuclear facilities. If they want gurantees that the US won't invade them, let them leave the Iraqi Shia alone. They had better wise up, soon. Otherwise, they face a dim future with even less options than they face today.