Thursday, June 01, 2006

Dancing Toward a Sea of Hiroshimas

The Reasonable rejoice! Exhausted Europeans, cynical Eurasian and Asians, and suspicious Americans have capitulated to that beacon of freedom, the Islamic Republic of Iran!

The Washington Post cheerleads as Six World Powers Reach Agreement on Iran:
"The United States and five major world powers agreed Thursday to offer Iran 'far-reaching proposals' that would 'bring significant benefits' if it halts its drive to master nuclear power, but also threatened 'further steps in the Security Council' if Iran refused to enter negotiations.

The agreement, announced here by British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett after extended negotiations, is intended to sharpen the choice for Iran in the debate over its nuclear program."

"We urge Iran to take the positive path and to consider seriously our substantive proposals which would bring significant benefits," Beckett told reporters with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the foreign ministers of Russia, China, France and Germany at her side.

While details of the package were not announced, the incentives appeared to include an international effort to assist Iran's nuclear industry, including guarantees of long-term fuel assurances -- a significant shift of the Bush administration's long insistence that Iran had no need for nuclear power.

But aides to Rice said the deal also commits China and Russia, two skeptics of sanctions, to a long list of specific steps to punish Iran if it refuses to halt its enrichment program. The possible sanctions are listed as a menu, ranging from minor to major, and there appeared to be no agreement yet on which options to choose if Iran failed to act.

Beckett read the brief statement after the diplomats had huddled over it for two hours, fiddling with the wording. It emphasized the positive, while using vague code words for rough action, which U.S. officials said stemmed from a desire to convince Iran to return to negotiations. U.S. officials even repeatedly refused to characterize the possible punishments for Iran as sanctions, using words such as steps, measures and actions.

"We are prepared to resume negotiations should Iran resume suspension of all enrichment related and reprocessing activities as required by the IAEA and we would also suspend action in the Security Council," Beckett said, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In exchange for another of the Mullocracy's "we promise" moments on uranium enrichment, the West will offer Iran substantial help in the development of their nuclear industry--including long-term commitments of fuel. If Iran refuses to halt its uranium enrichment program, which the IR has given every indication that it will, then the West will impose a menu of sanctions. Only it won't call them sanctions. Oh, and they haven't agreed on which of those measures they'll impose.

In other words, meet the new boss: same as the old boss!

China and Russia are "committed," says Secretary of State Rice. To what? If the West hasn't agreed on the imposition of consequences upon a defiant Iran, how can anyone expect China and Russia to do so?

Meanwhile, Iran could well agree to secure the assistance they need to perfect their nuclear industry. How much access will the IAEA have over their nuclear program, then? What happens if Iran refuses to cooperate with unannounced inspections proscriptions? How will the world respond if Iran locks inspectors out of suspicious facilities?

I fear that it will take a few mushroom clouds. The obliteration of certain cities across the West may awaken the perpetually backbone-challenged appeasers. Of course, by then Iran will have thoroughly armed it's impressive array of blood-lusting terrorist brigades. Not to mention the deliveries they'll have secured to beacons of harmony like Al Qaeda.

If Iran seriously wants to develop a peaceful nuclear industry, then let Iran convince the West it's serious about peace. Insist that Iran sever all military, intelligence and financial ties to Hezbollah. Demand that Iran recognize Israel and establish relations with the Jewish State. Compel the Mullahs to dismiss from the presidency the terrorist and hostage-taker that denies the holecaust like he butters toast. Finally, give the Iranian government 72 hours to completely withdraw any and all support that they've provided to shia militias in Iraq.

Should the Mullacracy agree to such terms, they would prove that they take peace seriously. Then the West could trust Iran to use nuclear technology peacefully.

Unfortunately, the West plays the compromised Theoden, listening to the insidious whispers of Grimmer Wormtongue, evading the hard decision that awaits. May we awaken soon. Before the first of the new Hiroshimas shatter the night.